Covid: new waves, new variants… the epidemic threat could last at least another 2 years, experts predict

Covid: new waves, new variants… the epidemic threat could last at least another 2 years, experts predict

Covid-19 is not expected to go away anytime soon.

Covid-19 is not expected to go away anytime soon. Indeed, according to a study published Tuesday in the scientific journal PNAS Nexus, the endemic stage of the virus could be reached at least in two years.

Word “endemic“, experts say, means that the virus is present in a region at a stable level, without the rising and falling waves of infections that we have seen during the coronavirus pandemic.

L’Yale research team behind this study succeeded in modeling the potential trajectory of Covid-19 by collecting data on coronaviral reinfection rates in rats, which are also susceptible to coronaviruses.

Beware of mutations

Scientists have come to the conclusion that the time it takes for Covid to become endemic in the United States is 1,437 dayswhich is slightly less than four years from the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. Thus, the endemic stage could be reached by 2024.

However, Caroline Zeiss, professor of medicine at the Yale School of Medicine and lead author of the study, cautions and clarifies that this projection does not take into account the potential mutations of the virus which could make it more transmissible. “Coronaviruses are very unpredictable, so there could be a mutation which makes them more pathogenic”said Zeiss.

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